empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
10.04.2025 12:59 AM
The Dollar – A Toxic Currency
Open trading account Open demo account

Trouble often comes in pairs or groups. The decline of American exceptionalism is only one of the challenges facing EUR/USD bears. The main currency pair remains resilient and occasionally goes on the offensive, even amid declining European stock indices and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The root of the issue lies in the sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds. This market is no longer a safe haven for frightened investors. At this rate, the dollar may soon lose its status as the world's primary reserve currency.

An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth. China was not intimidated by the U.S. raising tariffs by another 50%, bringing the total to 104%. In response, Beijing retaliated by increasing its tariffs on U.S. imports to 84%. Moreover, the rising yield on U.S. Treasuries signals that China may begin offloading its holdings of U.S. debt — which could be even more damaging than the tariffs themselves.

Holdings of U.S. Bonds by China and Japan

This image is no longer relevant

China and Japan are the largest holders of U.S. government bonds, and non-residents collectively own over 30% of the market. After the White House announced its new tariffs on America's "Liberation Day," investors faced a natural question: will other countries still want to fund the U.S. economy by continuing to purchase or hold its debt?

Beijing and Tokyo had previously funneled their trade surpluses with the U.S. into Treasury purchases. However, once the current account balance is factored in, they may be forced to dump those holdings. Rising yields on 10-year notes could even trigger Federal Reserve intervention. Deutsche Bank is predicting the launch of a new quantitative easing (QE) program.

U.S. Bond Yield Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

Thus, while non-residents' initial response to Trump's sweeping tariffs was to dump U.S. stocks en masse, U.S. bonds had become the next target by early April. The capital outflow from North America is putting pressure on the U.S. dollar, whose throne has begun to wobble. Given current developments in the global economy, the "greenback" may risk losing its role as the world's primary reserve currency.

This image is no longer relevant

Bank of America believes losing trust and other factors will drive EUR/USD to rally toward 1.12, 1.50, and 1.20 over the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively. Conversely, ING sees 1.09 as the fair value for the pair, where it is likely to remain in the near term. Bears may find support in expectations of an ECB deposit rate cut in April, while the Fed is expected to keep its federal funds rate unchanged.

Technically, a 1-2-3 reversal pattern may be forming on the daily EUR/USD chart, but for that to materialize, bears would need to push prices below the fair value level of 1.092. That seems unlikely, so long positions opened from 1.097 should be held and potentially increased. Target levels are 1.130 and 1.160.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Wave analysis
GBP/USD Analysis on June 17, 2025 The wave pattern on the GBP/USD chart continues to indicate the formation of an upward impulsive wave pattern. The wave layout closely mirrors that of EUR/USD, as the main driver
Chin Zhao
21:24 2025-06-17 +02:00
1315
Wave analysis
EUR/USD Analysis on June 17, 2025 The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart continues to indicate the development of an upward trend segment. This transformation occurred solely due to the new U.S. trade policy. Until
Chin Zhao
21:18 2025-06-17 +02:00
1285
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

At present, NZD/USD is demonstrating moderate activity and attracting buyers. However, a strong continuation of the upward movement has yet to materialize, as the market remains within its familiar weekly
Irina Yanina 20:39 2025-06-17 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The GBP/USD pair is steadily holding above the key psychological level of 1.3500 ahead of the UK Consumer Price Index release and the upcoming monetary policy meetings of the Federal
Irina Yanina 20:24 2025-06-17 UTC+2

The Kiwi Doesn't Give Up Despite New Zealand's Weak Economy

We previously noted that New Zealand's economy currently appears weak, and recent data has done nothing to challenge that assessment. The PMI indices deteriorated sharply in May, with the manufacturing
Kuvat Raharjo 12:10 2025-06-17 UTC+2

Market may be falling into same trap again

History is repeating itself. Ahead of America's Independence Day, many market participants were saying that Donald Trump's bark was worse than his bite — suggesting the US president issued many
Marek Petkovich 11:07 2025-06-17 UTC+2

Middle East Crisis as a Prelude to Global War... (Limited Downside Possible for Bitcoin and EUR/USD)

The missile standoff between the U.S. proxy Israel and Iran continues. Yesterday's unexpected departure of the U.S. president from the G7 summit in Canada sparked speculation that America might engage
Pati Gani 09:04 2025-06-17 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 17? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Only a few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Tuesday, and none are significant. In the Eurozone, we'll see entirely secondary economic sentiment indexes from the ZEW Institute
Paolo Greco 06:38 2025-06-17 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 17: Fed and BoE Meetings as a Reason to Sell the Dollar

On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair also traded relatively calmly, with a bullish bias. The British pound doesn't reach new three-year highs every day, but looking at almost any higher
Paolo Greco 03:49 2025-06-17 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 17: Safe-Haven Status No Longer Works

The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Monday, although we expected higher volatility. This is because the last events that traders could react to were from Friday
Paolo Greco 03:49 2025-06-17 UTC+2

Trump Wants to "Pass the Ball" to Europe

Last week, it became known that Donald Trump is seriously considering raising trade tariffs for all countries currently engaged in negotiations with the U.S. Trump is frustrated by the slow
Chin Zhao 00:39 2025-06-17 UTC+2

The Dollar Walks on Thin Ice

When there's money, you buy the best. In past years, the US dollar and dollar-denominated assets—especially shares of the "Magnificent Seven"—were considered the best investments. American stock indices
Marek Petkovich 00:39 2025-06-17 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 01:00 2025-06-20 UTC--5
Middle East Crisis as a Prelude to Global War... (Limited Downside Possible for Bitcoin and EUR/USD)
09:04 2025-06-17
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 03:00 UTC--5
Forecast for EUR/USD on June 17, 2025
12:00 2025-06-17
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 21:00 UTC--5
EUR/USD Forecast for June 17, 2025
04:51 2025-06-17
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 20:00 UTC--5
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on June 17: Geopolitics Played Its Part
03:49 2025-06-17
Trading plan
Relevance up to 01:00 UTC--5
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 17. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades
08:42 2025-06-17
Forecast
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.