empty
10.04.2025 12:19 PM
EUR/USD. April 10. Trump Continues to Shake the Markets

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair made two rebounds from the resistance zone of 1.1081–1.1095, turned in favor of the U.S. dollar, and declined toward the support zone of 1.0944–1.0957. A rebound from this zone will favor the euro and could trigger a resumption of growth toward the 1.1081–1.1095 level. For now, I do not anticipate a deeper decline, although much depends on the informational background, which, thanks to Trump, remains highly volatile.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern on the hourly chart has changed. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the new upward wave broke the previous peak. Therefore, the waves now suggest a reversal to a bullish trend. Donald Trump continues to impose new import tariffs, and panic and chaos persist in the markets. Bulls became more active again last week, but at the moment, it is hard to say who truly has the initiative—conditions are changing too rapidly.

The news background on Wednesday again had a direct impact on trader sentiment. There was a flood of headlines, and traders at times didn't know what to react to. First, Donald Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 125% in response to China's decision to raise tariffs on U.S. goods to 84%. Later in the evening, it was announced that Trump decided to implement a three-month negotiation pause for all countries except China. The pause is mostly symbolic, as tariffs will still remain in effect, albeit at a reduced "preferential" rate of 10%. For the dollar, which has lacked positive news lately, even this development was welcomed. Still, the bears were unable to mount sustained pressure, as the broader situation remains unchanged. Trump's goodwill on Wednesday evening does not mean the trade war is over, nor that peace and friendship have been restored. Knowing Trump, he could cancel the preferential period and raise all tariffs again as soon as next week.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, but the future direction will depend on how global events unfold. The trade war, in the full sense of the term, has only just begun. Therefore, I cannot base expectations for the pair's growth or decline solely on existing information. Market movements will be dictated exclusively by the incoming news flow. However, the bullish trend remains intact.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

Over the past reporting week, professional traders closed 6,549 long positions and opened 7,141 short positions. Sentiment in the "Non-commercial" category has recently turned bullish again—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 183,000, while short positions are at 131,000.

For twenty consecutive weeks, large players had been selling off the euro, but now for eight weeks straight, they have been reducing short positions and increasing long ones. The divergence in monetary policy approaches between the ECB and the Fed continues to support the U.S. dollar, but Trump's policy has become a more significant factor for traders, as it may exert dovish pressure on the Fed's stance and even trigger a recession in the U.S. economy.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the EU:

  • U.S. – Consumer Price Index (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)

On April 10, the economic calendar includes two U.S. reports, one of which is relatively important. Thus, the informational background may strongly influence market sentiment on Thursday, but any news about tariffs will remain the primary driver. On Wednesday, China announced an 84% tariff on imports from the U.S., and the U.S. responded with a 125% hike. Tensions continue to escalate.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Consider buying or selling the pair today only if clear signals appear near key levels on the hourly chart. However, I would once again emphasize that movements will depend more on the news cycle than on chart patterns.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.0957–1.0733 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Grigory Sokolov
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD. Indicator Analysis on July 17th

On Wednesday, the pair moved upward (on news), reaching the 8-period EMA at 1.3489 (thin blue line), then declined and closed the daily candle at 1.3417. Today, it may continue

Stefan Doll 12:12 2025-07-17 UTC+2

Forex forecast 17/07/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, SP500 and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 12:08 2025-07-17 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Indicator Analysis on July 17th

On Wednesday, the pair moved upward (on news), reaching the 23.6% level at 1.1739 (yellow dashed line), and then declined, closing the daily candle at 1.1639. Today, it may continue

Stefan Doll 11:45 2025-07-17 UTC+2

EUR/USD. July 17th. Trump Wants to Fire Powell Again

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair reached the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1574, rebounded from it, and rose to the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1712, from which it also bounced

Samir Klishi 11:23 2025-07-17 UTC+2

GBP/USD. July 17th. Unemployment in the UK Continues to Rise

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded on Wednesday from the support zone of 1.3357–1.3371 and rose to the 76.4% corrective level at 1.3470. A rebound from 1.3470

Samir Klishi 11:15 2025-07-17 UTC+2

The DXY has the potential to test its pivot level, but there is potential for further strengthening on Thursday, July 17, 2025.

US Dollar Index – Thursday, July 17, 2025 If the pivot and support levels are able to withstand the #USDX's weakening correction in the near term, the #USDX

Arief Makmur 08:47 2025-07-17 UTC+2

The Nasdaq 100 Index has the potential to weaken and fall to its nearest support level on Thursday, July 17, 2025.

Nasdaq 100 Index - Thursday, July 17, 2025 The #NDX price movement is below the EMA(20) and EMA(50), supported by the RSI(14) at a neutral bearish level. Therefore, the #NDX

Arief Makmur 08:47 2025-07-17 UTC+2

Expectations of a Stock Market Decline Through the Lens of the EUR/JPY Cross Rate

Historically, investor flight from the stock market has inevitably been reflected in a decline of the EUR/JPY pair, as it sums up the exit from risk currencies (such

Laurie Bailey 07:41 2025-07-17 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for July 17-21, 2025: buy above $3,329 (200 EMA - 5/8 Murray)

Gold is trading around 3,335, rebounding after reaching a low of 3,320 and a high of 3,377 yesterday during the American session. Gold experienced strong volatility following US President Donald

Dimitrios Zappas 05:58 2025-07-17 UTC+2

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for July 17-21, 2025: buy above 118,750 (200 EMA - 6/8 Murray)

If the Bitcoin price falls below the 5/8 Murray level at 115.625, the July 14 low, we could expect it to reach the 200 EMA, located around the psychological level

Dimitrios Zappas 05:56 2025-07-17 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.