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25.09.2023 03:27 PM
US premarket on September 25: US stock market continues its sharp decline
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US stock index futures are falling further, trading around weekly lows. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ has dropped 0.5%. US government bonds also slipped, offsetting earlier gains. Traders anticipate central banks maintaining higher interest rates for longer to combat inflation. The US dollar index has hit its March highs.

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Germany's 10-year bond yields have also surged, reaching a 2011 peak. The Stoxx 600 dropped by 0.6% due to issues in the mining sector. Rio Tinto Plc shares plummeted by 5.2% as China's real estate problems impacted the demand outlook for natural resources.

Notably, traders have grown increasingly concerned after the US Federal Reserve's recent decision to keep rates unchanged. Rising oil and other energy costs could reignite inflation, complicating efforts to reduce rates next year. Oil prices are climbing again as investors bet supply cuts will continue impacting demand.

Central banks will need to grapple with rising core inflation metrics in the fourth quarter, including energy costs. As a result, the rhetoric from the European Central Bank (ECB), Federal Reserve (Fed), and other country regulators will lean towards a prolonged tight policy stance.

Recently, several Fed officials hinted at another rate hike in the near future. Borrowing costs might remain high to help the Fed achieve its 2% inflation target. However, some argue further tightening would be a mistake, potentially pushing the country into a recession. Against this backdrop, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds could quickly revert to 4.75% before softer risk sentiments and tighter financial conditions drive yields down. Currently, the yield is at 4.49%, slightly below last Friday's 16-year high of 4.5%.

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Meanwhile, concerns over Chinese developers push investors away from risk assets. Today, China Evergrande Group canceled an investor meeting, amplifying fears about its debt situation.

As for the S&P 500, demand for the index remains weak. Bulls need to take control of $4,332 and $4,357 to cancel the bear market. From these levels, they can push the price to $4,382. Bulls also should take control of $4,405, restoring the market balance. If the index decreases amid a decline in risk appetite, bulls will have to protect $4,304. Breaking through this level, the trading instrument may return to $4,255 and $4,205.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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為何關稅可能引發漲勢而非崩盤？ 目前市場的恐慌可能被過分渲染。如果明天的關稅沒有預期中那麼具破壞性，我們或許會見證一波短暫但激烈的反彈，特別是在標普500指數上。
Anna Zotova
11:03 2025-04-01 +02:00
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USDJPY：4月1日初學者交易者的簡單交易技巧——昨日外匯交易回顧 日元貿易評論與交易提示 當149.55水平的測試發生時，MACD指標已經顯著高於零線，這限制了該貨幣對的上行潛力。因此，我沒有購買美元。
Jakub Novak
10:58 2025-04-01 +02:00
1060
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為何關稅可能引發漲勢而非崩盤？

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