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22.10.2024 08:04 AM
2024年10月22日EUR/USD熱點預測

預期中的美元調整尚未實現,因為其開端的微小跡象並未導致任何結果。美元再次開始活躍增長。這一發展的原因是聯邦儲備代表的一系列聲明,他們表示沒有必要維持當前的降息速度。他們甚至暗示可能將放緩降息,這表明可能會暫停。這意味著到年底,美國中央銀行可能僅降低一次利率,而不是如之前預期的兩次。不出所料,這推動了美元的上漲。

今天,輪到歐洲中央銀行(ECB)代表發表關於貨幣政策的聲明。歐元可能看到反彈的機率很高,這可能標誌著期待已久的調整的開始。在過去的三個月中,ECB 將再融資利率合計削減了 85 個基點,這是一個顯著的減少。很多人預期最近的 ECB 理事會會議不會改變利率,這似乎是合理的。在如此積極的貨幣寬鬆和通脹率降至 2.0% 以下之後,ECB 可能選擇暫停觀察進一步的發展。

這種情況可能導致一種情景,即使美聯儲放緩貨幣寬鬆的速度,但仍然持續降息,而 ECB 至少暫時暫停,保持利率穩定。這將足以讓歐元走強。因此,第二次嘗試調整可能會成功。

Dean Leo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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