empty
03.04.2025 06:22 PM
USD/JPY – Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

The Japanese yen is showing strong gains amid broad-based selling of the U.S. dollar, keeping the USD/JPY pair below the key psychological level of 147.00.

Investor concerns over the potential consequences of reciprocal tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump center around the risk of a disruption to the global trading system and negative impacts on the global economy. As a result, investors are avoiding risk and shifting capital into traditional safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen.

In addition, rising inflation in Japan is increasing expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, further supporting the yen. Adding to this is the anticipated Fed rate-cutting cycle driven by a tariff-induced slowdown in the U.S. economy, which has triggered a sharp drop in U.S. Treasury yields. This widening policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve is another factor driving capital flows into the yen.

From a technical perspective, the drop below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart signals potential for further downside in USD/JPY. The break below the 147.00 level confirms the likelihood of the pair reaching at least the March low near 146.50.

On the other hand, any recovery attempt is likely to face resistance around the psychological 148.00 level. A break above this level could trigger a short-covering rally, pushing the pair toward the 148.65–148.70 area. Further upside would likely attract fresh sellers near the key 149.00 level or at the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, thus limiting the pair's upside potential. The 100-period SMA on the 4-hour timeframe remains a critical pivot for determining trend strength.

This image is no longer relevant

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD. Weekly Preview. Inflation and More Inflation

The upcoming trading week will revolve around American inflation. In the United States, data will be published on the growth of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index

Irina Manzenko 02:39 2025-06-09 UTC+2

U.S. Dollar: Weekly Preview

In the United States, as usual, there will be far more interesting events and news than in the Eurozone or the United Kingdom. Economic data will start arriving on Wednesday

Chin Zhao 00:55 2025-06-09 UTC+2

British Pound: Weekly Preview

In the United Kingdom, the news background for the upcoming week will be much more interesting, although I do not believe it will significantly impact market sentiment. The pound continues

Chin Zhao 00:55 2025-06-09 UTC+2

Euro Currency: Weekly Preview

Boredom—pure and simple. That's how the upcoming week looks for the European currency. I want to clarify from the beginning that this review focuses solely on the European news background

Chin Zhao 00:55 2025-06-09 UTC+2

The Market Realized That Money Isn't Everything

Which is stronger — money or power? The answer to this question became clear very quickly. In the conflict between the most influential president in the world, Donald Trump

Marek Petkovich 00:07 2025-06-09 UTC+2

Bitcoin Heads for Conflict

The biggest surprise of June has been the divergence between U.S. stock indices and cryptocurrencies. The S&P 500 and Bitcoin are typically considered risk assets, historically moving hand in hand

Marek Petkovich 00:07 2025-06-09 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold maintains a positive tone; however, bulls are acting cautiously, preferring to refrain from aggressive buying ahead of the release of the important U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report

Irina Yanina 15:30 2025-06-06 UTC+2

WTI. West Texas Intermediate. Traders Await NFP

Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil remain in the middle of a three-day range. Prices are supported by hopes for the resumption of trade negotiations between the U.S

Irina Yanina 11:23 2025-06-06 UTC+2

ECB Meeting Results and Christine Lagarde's Press Conference

The euro responded with a significant rise following the ECB's decision to cut interest rates. But why did this happen? Let's break it down. The key reason behind the euro's

Jakub Novak 10:54 2025-06-06 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 6th? Fundamental Event Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: A fairly large number of macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Friday, but most of them will not interest traders. For example, the report on industrial production

Paolo Greco 10:11 2025-06-06 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.