Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The levels I outlined were not tested during the first half of the day. The volatility seen immediately after the release of Japan's PMI data quickly faded, limiting the dollar's upward movement. There was also no significant pressure on the pair.

In the second half of the day, investors' attention will turn to the release of key macroeconomic data from the United States. Specifically, close attention will be paid to the PMI indexes for both the manufacturing and services sectors, as well as the composite index. These indicators will provide crucial insights into the current state and near-term outlook of the US economy. Additionally, markets will closely monitor speeches by FOMC members Raphael Bostic and Michael S. Barr. Their statements regarding the future of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy could significantly impact the dollar's dynamics. If the FOMC rhetoric is hawkish, this may trigger strengthening of the US dollar against the yen.

As for intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 149.95 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 150.54 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 150.54, I'll exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30–35 point pullback). Buying the pair today is reasonable within the context of a bullish correction. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 149.63 level, with the MACD in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and could lead to a reversal upward. A rise to 149.95 and 150.54 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after breaking below the 149.63 level (red line on the chart), which would result in a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 149.06, where I'll exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pair may occur at any time today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 149.95 level, with the MACD in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and could lead to a reversal downward. A decline to 149.63 and 149.06 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually closing a position, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually closing a position, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use the overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be extremely cautious when entering trades. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't practice money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.