Analisis Forex & Kajian: 06.01.2023 - Bitcoin consolidation...

06.01.2023 03:03 PM

Bitcoin consolidation movement continues ahead of U.S. macro statistics: will volatility rise?

Bitcoin continues its flat movement after the implementation of a local bullish impulse. Following the results of a short-term surge in trading activity, BTC/USD quotes reached the level of $16.8k. As of January 6, the cryptocurrency continues to consolidate near this mark.

Following the results of January 5, the price did not make significant price movements and remained near the $16.8k level. Thus, buyers failed to realize the bullish momentum as seen on the daily Bitcoin chart.

Ahead of the weekend, the cryptocurrency also has a low chance of moving beyond the $16.4k–$16.9k range. Trading volumes and the number of unique addresses in the BTC network remain near a local low. Over the weekend, trading activity will fall even lower, so significant price movements should not be expect.

Negative factors

That said, there have been several high-profile headlines over the past two days that could worsen the cryptocurrency market in the medium term. Federal Reserve officials commented on the agency's future policy and the fate of the key rate.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said it is worth pausing to raise the key rate when the indicator reaches 5.4%. At the same time, Kashkari noted that there are no plans to ease monetary policy and reduce the key rate in 2023.

Galaxy Research analysts announced a difficult 2023 for crypto startups. According to the head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, the volume of investment by venture capital firms in web3 and blockchain projects will decrease significantly in 2023. Thorn believes that the downward trend will continue until the end of 2023, when the macroeconomic situation begins to improve.

Meanwhile, macro data in the U.S. portends a challenging year for the global economy. Nonfarm Payrolls data was 235,000 against the forecast of 150,000. This indicate a gradual deterioration in the U.S. economy and rising unemployment.

BTC/USD Analysis

In technical terms, Bitcoin quotes are not of particular interest, as the asset is systematically moving in a flat. However, the Fed's statement and statistics on the labor market may change the balance of power in the stock market and, accordingly, the crypto market.

In addition, today, January 6, the second set of U.S. labor market data is released. And regardless of the indicators, the result will have a negative color. If unemployment starts to grow in the main indices, this will mean the gradual entry of the U.S. economy into a recession phase.

If the labor market remains strong, it will untie the hands of the Fed for further key rate hikes. In the near future, it is likely that the labor market indicators will influence the Fed's policy.

For Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market, this statistic can be a reason to activate trading activity and significant price movements. Since volumes remain low, there is a possibility of movement in either direction, and the main catalyst for this will be the actions of the market maker.

Results

The situation on the cryptocurrency market is not changing dramatically, and it is unlikely to change in the near future. Therefore, forecasts for long and short ideas on Bitcoin remain valid. If the cryptocurrency gains a foothold above $16.9k, the asset will continue to move to the $17k–$17.4k level.

If the $16.4k level is broken, Bitcoin will resume its downward movement towards the $16k psychological support level. However, in the current environment, even high-profile newsworthy events are not enough to intensify trading activity in the market. This means that in 90% of cases, the impulse price movements will be manipulative and false.

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