empty
20.06.2023 03:21 PM
USD/JPY: Yen falls into a trap

The Japanese yen has fallen into a trap of policy divergence. While the BoJ, at its June meeting, decided to maintain control over the yield curve and the overnight rate at the same level, its counterparts in other developed countries are tightening their monetary policies. As a result, the USD/JPY pair is rapidly rising, and the EUR/JPY quotes have reached a 15-year high.

Central bank rate hikes lead to an increase in bond yields. In June, Australia and Canada were the initiators of this process. They raised borrowing costs after a pause, surprising investors. And there's more to come. The ECB has taken another step towards monetary tightening, and the Fed has hinted at the continuation of the cycle in July. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank are next in line, which may raise rates by 25-50 basis points.

Against this backdrop, the Bank of Japan appears to be a peculiar outlier. It stated that inflation would slow down by the end of the year. Therefore, it is necessary to patiently maintain monetary stimulus. The majority of Reuters experts were expecting such a result from the June BoJ meeting. It significantly weakened the yen, with its trade-weighted exchange rate reaching a record low.

Yen's trade-weighted exchange rate dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

This circumstance increases the cost of imports and causes dissatisfaction within the Japanese government. They increasingly resort to verbal interventions. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that he continues to closely monitor events in the Forex market and will take measures in the field of currency policy if necessary. Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura claims that officials are monitoring any excessive or speculative events in the currency market.

As the experience of autumn 2022 shows, verbal interventions in the Forex market achieve nothing. Currency interventions are needed. Last year, Tokyo spent about $65 billion on them. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank sold USD/JPY through intermediaries when it approached the levels of 146 and 152. This time, most Reuters experts predict that the red line will be at the 145 level.

The yen has a tough time. The stabilization of underlying inflation in developed countries forces central banks to resume or continue cycles of tightening monetary policy. This leads to an increase in bond yields and widens their spreads with Japanese counterparts. As a result, carry traders come into play. Players take advantage of the difference by buying income-generating assets and selling funding currencies, such as the yen.

This image is no longer relevant

The future dynamics of USD/JPY will depend on Jerome Powell's readiness to confirm two acts of monetary tightening by the Fed in 2023, each by 25 basis points. The Federal Reserve Chairman will speak before the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Technically, on the daily chart, USD/JPY has precisely executed a buying strategy on the breakout of the previous fair value at 139.9 and the upper boundary of the triangle at 140.2 and 140.4. Utilize the current pullback to increase long positions towards 142.5 and 144.

Ringkasan
Segera
Analitic
Igor Kovalyov
Mulakan perdagangan
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

XAU/USD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Hari ini, emas mencuba untuk pulih walaupun terdapat kekuatan yang lebih meluas daripada dolar AS, yang melemahkan pemulihan global dalam logam berharga ini. Presiden Amerika Syarikat, Donald Trump, dan Presiden

Irina Yanina 12:08 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Yen Terus Melemah

Kadar inflasi tahunan di Tokyo menurun dari 3.1% pada bulan Jun kepada 2.9% pada bulan Julai. Indeks teras, yang tidak mengambil kira harga makanan dan tenaga, turut perlahan dari 3.1%

Kuvat Raharjo 09:56 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Pasaran Bakal Menghadapi Ujian Mencabar

Pasaran terus melonjak naik apabila senario paling buruk tidak menjadi kenyataan. Donald Trump mengancam untuk mengenakan tarif sebanyak 30% ke atas Jepun dan EU — namun mereka hanya dikenakan 15%

Marek Petkovich 09:23 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Amerika Syarikat dan Kesatuan Eropah Capai Perjanjian Perdagangan yang Sukar

Mata wang euro meningkat berbanding dolar AS susulan laporan bahawa Amerika Syarikat dan Kesatuan Eropah telah mencapai satu perjanjian yang diperjuangkan dengan sengit, di mana EU akan dikenakan tarif sebanyak

Jakub Novak 09:16 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Apakah yang Perlu Diberikan Perhatian pada 28 Julai? Pecahan Acara Asas kepada Pedagang Baharu

Analisis Laporan Makroekonomi: Tiada laporan makroekonomi dijadualkan pada hari Isnin. Oleh demikian, melainkan Donald Trump mengeluarkan kenyataan berprofil tinggi atau membuat keputusan baharu, para pedagang mungkin akan berdepan dengan volatiliti

Paolo Greco 06:18 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan EUR/USD – 28 Julai: Sangat sedikit masa yang tinggal sebelum 1 Ogos

Pada masa ini, pasangan mata wang EUR/USD mengekalkan nada kenaikan pada jangka masa 4 jam. Walaupun pound Britania menunjukkan penurunan yang agak tajam dalam beberapa hari kebelakangan ini, euro tidak

Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan GBP/USD – 28 Julai: Kejatuhan Mengejut Pound dan Data UK yang Lemah

Pasangan mata wang GBP/USD mencatatkan penurunan ketara pada hari Jumaat. Kejatuhan pound British ini agak mengelirukan memandangkan tiada sebab asas yang kukuh di sebaliknya. Kami tidak berpendapat bahawa data

Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-07-28 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Minggu Paling Mendebarkan Bulan Julai: Mesyuarat FOMC, Indeks PCE Teras, Inflasi Zon Euro, KDNK AS, dan Data Senarai Gaji Bukan Ladang

Minggu hadapan dijangka akan menjadi tidak stabil. Kalendar ekonomi penuh dengan acara asas utama — termasuk laporan Senarai Gaji Bukan Ladang, mesyuarat FOMC, data inflasi zon euro, Indeks Pembuatan

Irina Manzenko 00:48 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan GBP/USD. Pratonton Mingguan. Mesyuarat Fed dan Data Pasaran Buruh Utama

Pasangan mata wang GBP/USD mencatatkan penurunan ketara pada penghujung minggu lalu. Kejatuhan mendadak mata wang British ini menimbulkan kekeliruan, memandangkan tiada sebab kukuh yang boleh menjelaskan pergerakan tersebut. Kami tidak

Paolo Greco 00:48 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Pound British – Pratonton Mingguan

Bagi pound, minggu baharu dijangka sangat tidak menarik. Tiada data penting dijangkakan dari United Kingdom, maka segala tumpuan akan beralih kepada dolar dan Amerika Syarikat. Mungkin kelihatan pelik untuk menumpukan

Chin Zhao 00:48 2025-07-28 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.