empty
25.03.2025 09:18 AM
The Market Has Turned Everything Upside Down

Is the worst behind us? As the S&P 500 surged to a three-week high amid easing tariff threats from Donald Trump, banks and investment firms rushed to the bulls' side, jostling for position. According to JP Morgan and Evercore, the worst stock sell-off of 2025 is over, and Bank of America sees signs of capital flows reversing. Previously, money was flowing from North America to Europe—now, it's time for a reversal.

Necessity is the mother of invention. While it's hard to call Donald Trump a poor man, one can certainly admire the Republican's inventiveness. He introduced a new concept in trade wars by announcing a 25% tariff on anyone purchasing oil from Venezuela. This approach could later be applied against Russia if it continues to stall on ending the armed conflict in Ukraine.

However, what energized markets wasn't this new "weapon." What mattered more for the S&P 500 was the White House's decision not to impose tariffs on imports of cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals starting April 2. Additionally, any mutual tariffs will be selective in nature. If that's the case, the chances of a U.S. recession will decline, and capital will begin to return to the U.S.

S&P 500 and the Magnificent Seven Stocks Performance

This image is no longer relevant

According to Bank of America, the main reason for the capital flight to Europe was the sell-off in the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, which dropped by 14%. As a result, Tesla and other tech giants shed a significant portion of their gains and are now beginning to look attractive again. Their valuation relative to the broader market has dropped to its lowest level since late 2022. Is it time to buy?

JP Morgan believes so, pointing to seasonal factors, the decline of the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, as well as deeply pessimistic sentiment among retail investors—all of which pave the way for an S&P 500 rally. Evercore notes that this negative sentiment stems from White House actions, as tariff threats fueled recession fears.

A U.S. economic downturn could have become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Historically, whenever media interest in the topic surged, a recession wasn't far behind. On average, a recession occurred around seven months after peak user search activity. This means U.S. GDP could have risked contracting by October if the White House had continued to frighten markets with tariff threats.

Corporate Earnings Forecast Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

The S&P 500 has its own kind of safety cushion—a weak U.S. dollar. Roughly 30% of companies in the index generate revenue from overseas, and a declining USD index supports their financial performance. In fact, it was the revision of earnings forecasts that catalyzed the capital shift from North America to Europe. Is it time to return home?

On the S&P 500's daily chart, the bulls have launched a counterattack. However, a rejection at resistance levels of 5815, 5835, or 5885 would be a signal to sell.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Igor Kovalyov
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the EUR/USD pair is attempting to attract buyers. Despite the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday to leave interest rates unchanged, the euro is facing headwinds due to ongoing

Irina Yanina 13:20 2025-07-25 UTC+2

No Unity of Opinion Within the ECB Yet

Yesterday, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, citing risks stemming from the trade war with the U.S., the strong euro, and rising government spending. According to Governing Council

Jakub Novak 11:59 2025-07-25 UTC+2

ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged

Yesterday, many were watching how the European Central Bank would act under current conditions, as the economy still requires stimulus, but inflationary risks prevent further easing. Following the meeting, President

Jakub Novak 11:36 2025-07-25 UTC+2

The Market Has Chosen a Win-Win Strategy

The U.S. stock market has shaken off its fears completely. The VIX volatility index has plunged to its lowest level since early February, while the S&P

Marek Petkovich 11:15 2025-07-25 UTC+2

Will Trump Succeed in Forcing Powell to Do His Bidding? (Potential for a Bitcoin Decline and a Rise in #NDX)

The U.S. president is fully implementing his aggressive policy toward everyone and everything — both in foreign and domestic affairs. While his actions toward trade partners are more or less

Pati Gani 09:57 2025-07-25 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 25? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are relatively few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, but all of them are quite important. In Germany, the IFO Business Climate Index will be released — the least significant

Paolo Greco 06:43 2025-07-25 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 25: No Sign of De-escalation Yet

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair pulled back slightly, but this strengthening of the dollar has no real impact on the overall picture. The British pound has corrected in recent

Paolo Greco 04:17 2025-07-25 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 25: The ECB Meeting Did Not Change the Balance of Power Between the Dollar and the Euro

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to move upward on Thursday. There were several macroeconomic events scheduled for the day, and they did provoke a small market reaction

Paolo Greco 04:17 2025-07-25 UTC+2

EUR/USD: ECB's "Hawkish Pause" and Conflicting Macroeconomic Reports

The results of the ECB July meeting provided slight support for the euro. However, contradictory macroeconomic reports and anticipation of the outcome of the US-EU negotiations played a restraining role

Irina Manzenko 00:50 2025-07-25 UTC+2

The Euro Outsmarted the "Bears"

There was no "sell the fact" reaction. One of the reasons behind the recent EUR/USD rally was the expectation that the deposit rate would be held at 2% following

Marek Petkovich 00:50 2025-07-25 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.