empty
02.01.2025 04:16 PM
Possible prospects for the EUR/USD currency pair in 2025

Over the past two years, the EUR/USD currency pair has traded within a wide yet sideways range, balanced on the one hand by high interest rates in both the Eurozone and the U.S., and on the other by the weakness of the American economy and a recession in Europe.

The pair's most notable movements occurred in the last three months of the year, driven by expectations of Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential race. His economic agenda, which includes tax cuts, increased tariffs, and other protectionist measures to support domestic manufacturing, as well as the stabilization and resurgence of inflation, were key factors strengthening the dollar. This process occurred across all major currencies without exception and continued despite two 0.50% rate cuts.

While the U.S. dollar gained fundamental support, the euro lost ground due to a decline in consumer inflation to the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%, and briefly below it in September. By December, inflation in the Eurozone edged up slightly to 2.2%, still below the U.S. figure of 2.7%. Stabilization of inflation slightly above target in continental Europe continues to suggest further ECB monetary easing, unlike the Federal Reserve (Fed), where further rate cuts are increasingly deemed unlikely.

Recent inflation data from Spain, released just before the new year, fueled expectations of continued gradual ECB rate cuts. Spanish consumer prices rose by 2.8% year-over-year in December, compared to 2.4% in November, exceeding the forecast of 2.6%. This is significant, as Spain is the Eurozone's fourth-largest economy.

This trend reinforces the ECB's cautious approach, which included four 0.25% rate cuts in 2024. In 2025, an additional four cuts are projected, bringing the deposit rate to 2%. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to cut rates only twice by 0.25% throughout the year. With other major Eurozone economies yet to release data due to the holidays, the Spanish report remains the focal point of the post-holiday week. The euro declined by nearly 6% in 2024 under pressure from diverging monetary policies between the Eurozone and U.S. central banks.

While the ECB continues gradual easing, the Fed has revised its rate-cutting forecasts downward, further strengthening the dollar against the euro. Uncertainty surrounding potential policy changes under President-elect Donald Trump adds additional pressure on the euro's outlook.

What Are the Prospects for the Pair This Year?

If current factors affecting the EUR/USD pair persist—continued U.S. inflation growth, a persistent Eurozone recession, and Trump's implementation of his new economic policy—it is highly likely that the pair will drop to parity at 1.0000 or even lower to levels seen in September 2022 or January 2001.

Daily Forecast:

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

EUR/USD:The pair dropped on the last trading day of 2024 to our first target of 1.0345. A breach of this level could push it further down to 1.0250 by the end of this week.

EUR/JPY:The pair remains above the support level of 162.40. Breaking this level could lead to further declines toward 160.65 amid expectations of ECB rate cuts this year and potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.

Pati Gani,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Euro: Previsão semanal

A moeda europeia continua a se beneficiar da fraqueza do dólar americano, que se tornou ainda mais evidente com o retorno de Donald Trump à cena política. Sinceramente, discutir diariamente

Chin Zhao 22:30 2025-06-16 UTC+2

A libra ignora os dados fracos e tenta persistentemente continuar a subir

Os dados macroeconômicos do Reino Unido publicados na semana passada parecem francamente fracos — tudo está na zona vermelha, o que significa pior do que o esperado. No entanto

Kuvat Raharjo 20:46 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Bitcoin dominado pelo medo

A caridade começa em casa — e a lealdade também. Ao que tudo indica, o comprometimento do 47º presidente dos Estados Unidos com o setor cripto tem menos

Marek Petkovich 18:33 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Dólar norte-americano: Previsão semanal

Mais uma vez, o dólar estará em destaque esta semana, não apenas por causa da reunião do Federal Reserve, mas também pelos desdobramentos políticos nos Estados Unidos. O primeiro ponto

Chin Zhao 18:33 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Libra esterlina: Prévia semanal

O Reino Unido terá pelo menos um relatório digno de atenção nesta semana. Na quarta-feira, será divulgado o dado de inflação de maio. Segundo as expectativas do mercado, a taxa

Chin Zhao 18:33 2025-06-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD: A guerra não é aliada do dólar

No início da nova semana de negociações, o par EUR/USD manteve-se dentro da faixa de 1,15 e está até tentando se aproximar do nível de resistência de 1,1600, apesar

Irina Manzenko 17:45 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Visão geral do GBP/USD – 16 de junho: Como Trump está prejudicando o dólar

O par de moedas GBP/USD continuará sob a influência da geopolítica e da política na nova semana. Na verdade, temos repetido a mesma coisa todos os dias nos últimos quatro

Paolo Greco 16:24 2025-06-16 UTC+2

O confronto entre Israel e Irã. Reunião do Fed. O que vem a seguir? (Espero uma queda ainda maior do USD/CAD e uma retração local do ouro antes de uma nova onda de crescimento)

Israel e Irã seguem trocando ataques com mísseis, mas os mercados parecem adotar seu próprio roteiro, operando sob a suposição de que o conflito não ultrapassará o limite nuclear. Enquanto

Pati Gani 15:19 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Relatório da CFTC: O dólar está sendo vendido novamente. Aguardando novas revelações de Trump

Há cinco semanas, a posição vendida total do dólar americano em relação às principais moedas parou de aumentar, o que deu motivos para acreditar que o dólar poderia iniciar

Kuvat Raharjo 14:32 2025-06-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Análise e previsão

Hoje, o par EUR/USD tenta recuperar o impulso positivo, aproximando-se do nível psicológico de 1,1600, próximo das faixas de preço vistas pela última vez em 2021. Os traders aguardam

Irina Yanina 14:25 2025-06-16 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.